Several years have passed since the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which aims to reshape the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain, came into effect. As of March 2026, South Korea’s battery trio (LG Energy Solution, SK On, Samsung SDI), which forms the core axis of EV battery production in the United States, stands at a historic crossroads.
This is because their massive joint venture plants across the U.S. have begun full-scale commercial operation, allowing them to benefit from substantial ‘Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit (AMPC)’ benefits. However, at the same time, the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, and the phenomenon of the ‘EV Chasm (a temporary stagnation in demand)’ are acting as complex unsettling factors.
Today, as of late March 2026, we present an ultra-high-density analysis of the current status of K-battery 3’s local factories in the U.S. and the ‘subsidy risks’ they face.
1. 2026 K-Battery U.S. Factory Performance Report: The ‘Dollar Hunt’ Begins in Earnest
As of March 2026, the local production capacity of K-battery 3 in the United States has grown incomparably compared to the early stages of the IRA’s implementation. This is directly leading to massive AMPC benefits on the scale of trillions of KRW.
① LG Energy Solution (LGES): The Power of ‘Joint Venture Plants’ LG Energy Solution has already completed and is fully operating Ultium Cells Plants 1 (Ohio) and 2 (Tennessee), its joint venture (JV) with GM. As of 2026, Ultium Cells Plant 3 (Michigan) has also entered initial mass production. Adding the JVs with Honda and Hyundai Motor Group, which have also been completed and are conducting trial runs, as well as its independent plant in Arizona, LGES has secured an annual production capacity of over 150GWh in the U.S. alone. This is the fastest speed among the K-battery trio, and its AMPC benefit in 2026 is projected to reach trillions of KRW.
② SK On: ‘BlueOval SK’ Full Operation While SK On is stably supplying volumes through its joint venture plant with Hyundai Motor Group (Georgia), the core of 2026 is BlueOval SK, its JV with Ford. BlueOval SK’s Kentucky Plants 1 and 2 and the Tennessee plant have entered full-scale mass production starting in 2026. SK On is mobilizing all efforts to stabilize yields and maximize the scope of AMPC benefits. The operating rate of BlueOval SK will be the key determining factor for whether SK On can escape from its deficit in the U.S. business.
③ Samsung SDI: Synergy with ‘Stellantis’ Samsung SDI took the most cautious steps among the trio, but as of 2026, it is seeing those results. StarPlus Energy Plant 1 (Indiana), its JV with Stellantis, began operation ahead of its original schedule. As Samsung SDI’s high-value batteries (P5, P6) are produced locally in the U.S., they are targeting the high-end EV market. Construction of Stellantis Plant 2 and the JV with GM are also proceeding smoothly as of 2026, and the company is fully enjoying the AMPC effect through stable yield management.
2. Core 2026 Report: The Shadow of AMPC and ‘Subsidy Risks’
While it may seem like K-battery factories are sweeping up dollars as of March 2026, anxiety is prevalent in the market. The subsidy risks they face can be summarized into three categories.
① Political Risk: The ‘Uncertainty’ of the U.S. Presidential Election The biggest variable is the U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 2026. If President Donald Trump returns to power, he has already declared that he will “define the IRA as a ‘Green Scam’ and repeal it.” Of course, repealing the IRA in its entirety will not be easy as it must pass the threshold of Congress. However, through executive orders, he can hit the profitability of K-battery companies by reducing the AMPC credit limit or tightening eligibility requirements. Companies are agonizing over Plan B in preparation for this scenario.
② Market Risk: Prolonged EV Chasm The ‘EV Chasm’ phenomenon, where the growth of EV demand slows down, is continuing as of 2026. U.S. original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like GM, Ford, and Stellantis are downgrading their EV production targets and turning their eyes toward Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV). A situation may arise where battery factories are completed, but the cars that will take those batteries are not being produced. A drop in the operating rate will directly lead to a decrease in AMPC payments and the burden of fixed costs due to idle facilities, which can seriously worsen the profitability of K-battery 3.
③ Financial Risk: The Double Trouble of Interest Rates and Yield As the Fed’s timing for interest rate cuts is delayed, the interest burden on factory construction costs, which reach tens of trillions of KRW, is snowballing. Furthermore, if the yield of new factories does not reach the target, they will not be able to fully receive AMPC benefits and will suffer massive losses. As of 2026, each factory is fighting to stabilize yield and reduce costs.
3. Outlook for the Second Half of 2026 and Response Strategies for Smart Investors
The U.S. K-battery market in the second half of 2026 will have ‘a sure present with AMPC benefits’ and ‘an anxious future with potential subsidy reduction’ coexisting. Investors should focus on the following points.
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The ‘Golden Cross’ of Operating Rate and Yield: AMPC is paid in proportion to ‘produced’ batteries. In the first-quarter earnings to be announced starting in April, investors must scrutinize how much each company’s U.S. factory operating rate and yield have improved compared to the previous quarter, and how much the resulting AMPC benefits have been reflected in the profit.
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OEM EV Strategy Shifts: It is crucial to monitor whether the major OEMs supplied by K-battery 3 (GM, Ford, Stellantis) up their EV production targets again, or if they reduce battery order volumes. A decrease in orders from OEMs is the most powerful downward pressure on K-battery companies.
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Involvement of the U.S. Political Situation: Attention must be paid to the energy policy stance of the U.S. presidential election camps and the results of the South Korean government’s diplomatic efforts (negotiations to maintain subsidies) starting in April. If the ‘Trump Risk’ becomes a reality, the stock prices of the battery sector may take a major short-term hit.
✅ Summary for Readers
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Status: As of March 2026, the joint venture plants in the U.S. of K-battery 3 (LG, SK, Samsung) have entered full-scale operation and begun to benefit from massive IRA AMPC tax credits on the scale of trillions of KRW.
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Risk: However, the possibility of IRA subsidy reduction following the upcoming U.S. presidential election and production cuts by OEMs due to the prolonged EV chasm pose a serious threat to companies’ profitability.
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Response: Investors must confirm the improvement in operating rates and yields during the April earnings season and carefully adjust their portfolios based on the U.S. presidential election political situation and changes in OEM order volumes.